More than 500 million people live in hazardous zones adjacent to active volcanoes all over the world, and volcano slope instability represents one of the most extreme hazards. Moreover, lateral edifice collapse has recently been recognised as a common event within the life cycle of all volcano types.
With this project we want to contribute to understanding the fundamentals of edifice failure in active and extinct volcanoes with special emphasis on the assessment of possible patterns of precursor geological signals.
Specific objectives
- Better understanding of the deformation pattern and structures preceding large scale volcano instability under tectonic and coupled magmatic-tectonic forces;
- Test the concept that edifice instability may result from propagation of regional tectonic structures from the basement into the cone even in non-active volcanoes;
- Compare the deformation observed in unstable edifices to those generated in already collapsed volcanoes in normal, reverse and transcurrent faulting environments;
- Investigate deformations in volcanic edifices during their emplacement, until the point of overall instability;
- Contribute to building up a database of physical-mechanical properties of
rock masses and loose materials in volcanic environments;
- Generate and test reproducible experiments by numerical and analogue scaled modelling on internal and outer deformation patterns during creep deformation and complete failure of volcanic edifices;
- Exchange know-how and data between European and non-European senior researchers, and provide a training in research methods for young researchers and students;
- Contribute to predictive capability in emergency situations through improved knowledge of deformation patterns within volcano flanks, for subsequent use in volcano hazard assessment.
To accomplish these important goals, we propose to address the problem with an approach based on different methodologies that are rarely used in a synergistic way. Field data will be collected in different tectonic settings in order to obtain information on volcano deformation in reverse, normal and transcurrent faulting environments. We selected three key sites that are the most representative for evaluating the various components of this project: Stromboli Italy, normal faults), Cotopaxi (Ecuador, reverse faults) and Mayon (Philippines, transcurrent faults).
Other active and non-active volcanoes will be proposed, during the successive phases of this project, based on increasing co-operation with other international research groups.
For both analogue scaled experiments and numerical modelling the know-how will be shared among European laboratories and Russia-Asia counterparts. It is expected to improve knowledge about procedures, databases and tools among the research groups from the countries concerned, through exchange visits, performing joint modelling, and training of researchers and students.
Timetable of the research
The project has a duration of five years, consisting of an initial three-year phase dedicated to the study of the proposed volcanoes and to increase co-operation with other research groups, and the successive two years devoted to gathering data from new collaborations at a global scale.
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